Transition Milwaukee

For some, the future is bleak. Imagine, if you will, a nightmarish apocalypse of oil shocks and climate change that leave everyday Americans groping around alone, cold in the dark, cranking induction flashlights to illuminate cars that won’t run, big-box retailers devoid of merchandise, and decaying cities peopled by zombie-like citizens who can tap out text messages with precision but go hungry without microwavable meals.

For others, the forecast of a world without cheap and abundant oil is motivation to start building a brighter future today. A growing vanguard of people around the planet are rejecting a vision of self-imposed apocalypse and embracing this second future, with an emphasis on humanity and sustainability customized at many local levels.

They’re part of the Transition Movement, an idea exported five years ago from Ireland and the United Kingdom and now taking root in hundreds of locations across the globe.

In early 2009, 40 people interested in sustainability issues gathered at the Urban Ecology Center to explore how Milwaukee can prepare for a future that may look very different from today. Nicole Bickham, of Jefferson, Wis., and Bay View resident Tom Brandstetter organized this first “Transition Milwaukee” event, distributing 20 copies of Rob Hopkins’ The Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience to generate discussion and present a possible framework around which to get organized.

“That first meeting was exciting-to be connecting with so many leaders in the sustainability arena,” said Christie Mole, an East Side resident and Transition Milwaukee steering committee member. 

A year later, Transition Milwaukee has evolved-and continues to evolve-into a robust, if amorphous, group that meets monthly and counts 142 online followers with 62 of those people more involved in planning concrete local action.

This level of participation marks Milwaukee as a regional leader among budding so-called Transition Towns, which engage in 12 steps that lead to “energy descent action plans” to soften the landing in a post-petroleum world. In contrast, Transition Chicago lists only 15 members and the Twins Cities claim 27.

What Transition?

The Transition framework is animated by the idea that the end of cheap oil combined with climate change will lead to massive changes in how we live. Since virtually all aspects of modern life are dependent upon plentiful oil, the idea is that beginning to prepare now for a future with less petroleum will lessen the eventual shock of less energy.

The term “peak oil” refers to the point at which global petroleum production reaches maximum output and then begins a permanent decline. Decreases in oil availability will deeply impact transportation, agriculture, and the larger economy. Because oil is a finite resource the concept of peak oil is not controversial, but there is great disagreement about when peak oil will occur. Estimates range from oil peaking in 2040 to having already peaked in 2007.

Rather than debate when peak oil will occur, members of Transition Milwaukee prefer to focus on steps that will reduce dependence on petroleum while strengthening the community. A major theme is the “re-localization” of agriculture.

Re-localization

“One area of focus is building food systems that do not rely on fossil fuels for shipment and production,” said Erik Lindberg, Transition member and community supported agriculture (CSA) farmer. “How long could we feed ourselves if the trucks stop rolling? This means buying locally grown foods from sustainable farms as well as growing and raising our own food.”

There’s also opportunity for re-localization of other behaviors.

“I interpret re-localizing to mean having the resources necessary for a community to live within a small circumference. This would include food, shelter, clothing, health care, water, energy,” said Mole. “The more we can source these things close to our homes, the better. Examples of this are growing your own vegetables, buying as much food as possible from local organic farmers, supporting local craftspeople and artisans, staycations.”

To promote local food, Transition Milwaukee joined with the Victory Garden Initiative to install more than 50 victory gardens throughout Milwaukee over the 2009 Memorial Day weekend.

In Bay View, there were two official planting sites, including Future Green’s rooftop garden, and 20 to 30 volunteers participated. “Bay View had an impressive contingent for the Victory Garden Blitz last May,” Mole said.

Other projects have included a tour of the aquaculture facility of Bay View’s Sweet Water Organics, informational meetings about raising eggs and honey in the city, and planting fruit and nut trees at All People’s Church near the Riverwest neighborhood.

Re-skilling Ourselves

Re-localization includes relearning the once common skills and knowledge that allow communities to meet their needs locally-a process Transition calls “re-skilling.”

“Re-skilling is our attempt to teach ourselves and each other to be better able to build, grow, fix, sew, preserve, and heal,” Lindberg said. “I don’t know how to prepare a chicken for eating. Isn’t this something I should know? How do you make sausage or preserve meat in the absence of plentiful refrigeration? There are so many basic homemaking or homesteading skills that our grandparents knew and depended upon daily, but that are largely unknown by younger generations. The educational system, today, focuses almost exclusively on training our young to make money rather than make or do things.”

Lost skills are not confined to food production and preparation. In a culture where it’s easier to buy than build and replace than repair, manual labor skills are not as common as in generations past.

“I have learned a lot about building and construction through volunteering with Habitat for Humanity,” Brandstetter said. “It’s amazing, but a lot of us don’t even know how to pound a nail.”

Less, Local Energy

Brandstetter also points out that a key component of confronting peak oil is the re-localization of energy production. He has assisted the First Unitarian Universalist Church in developing a solar electric system and promotes the use of biodiesel fuel for automobiles.

Other Transition members are preparing for peak oil by learning to use less energy and discovering opportunities for personal and communal growth through “powering down.”

Sarah Moore has instituted “power down” Saturdays at her Riverwest home to experiment with lessening her family’s dependence on fossil fuels. For one day a week, the heat is reduced and extra clothes come out; the computer and TV stay off, while she and her children read books or engage in other activities together.

Moore is concerned about how every action affects climate change. Reducing energy use cuts down on her family’s carbon footprint, and prepares for a future with less oil.

Transition Milwaukee is looking to make big headlines by following Moore’s lead during “Power Down Week,” June 21-27, in which everyone is invited to “power down” in some way. Moore and company are approaching the week like a party. They’ll go for a week without electricity or gas in Riverwest, cooking with solar ovens, sharing group solar showers, reading by candlelight, and celebrating with bonfires, according to suraforchange.com.

It will be “a week to see how small we can make our carbon footprints together,” Moore said. “From riding our bikes to work or going off the grid all week. You decide how far you want to go. The more you push yourself the more fun you have.”

Transition in Bay View

Swee Sim, of the Future Green store in Bay View, has been an active member of Transition Milwaukee from the outset. He has installed a rooftop garden, produces biodiesel from used restaurant grease, has installed photovoltaic panels, and experiments with electric vehicles.

“There is a lot of Transition activity in Bay View,” Sim said. “There is community composting at Sweet Water Organics and a community garden going in at Hide House. Bella’s is considering installing a solar photovoltaic system, plus all the gardens started last spring.”

One thing that makes Transition different from other environmental initiatives is that it appeals more to hope and action than fear and politics. It visualizes a positive, attainable future and encourages people to map out steps on how to get there-rather simply envisioning catastrophe and calamity people are powerless to prevent or escape.

“Transition attracts me because it is highly communal and provides meaningful and useful sense of purpose,” Lindberg said. “Transition starts with a focus on creating awareness, but moves quickly to action and hope. It is direly realistic yet also hopeful. We need both.”

All are invited to get involved in helping Milwaukee become more resilient. Transition Milwaukee meets the fourth Monday of each month. The next meeting is 6:30pm, March 22 at the Urban Ecology Center, 1500 E. Park Pl. More info: transitionmilwaukee.ning.com.

Daniel Gray is a member of Transition Milwaukee.

The Transition Movement

The tagline of the Transition Movement is “rebuilding community resilience and self-reliance.”

Its premise is that because petroleum is a finite resource, to survive, humans will have to shift away from their dependence on it.

Transition is about preparing and empowering communities and individuals for the disappearance of cheap oil on a local level. That impact will be felt not just directly in fuel and energy prices, but in the kinds of products and services that remain available when oil is no longer the lifeblood of the global economy.

Transition began in 2005, when Rob Hopkins, a permaculture teacher (permaculture unites human architecture, design, and agriculture according to natural ecological patterns), helped develop an “Energy Descent Action Plan” for Kinsale, Ireland. In 2006, Hopkins helped the town of Totnes, United Kingdom launch the first Transition initiative. The concept grew and spread from there.

What Is Peak Oil?

By Michael Timm

Peak oil is directly related to the geological reality that there is a finite amount of petroleum available on Planet Earth. At some point, the peak, humans will reach the maximum extraction rate of the resource. After that, oil extraction will decline. If global demand exceeds available supply, system collapse occurs.

Reaching the peak in itself is not the problem-peak oil is like a “Cliff Ahead” sign at the end of the road that the coyote chasing the roadrunner ignores right before he runs off the cliff. There’s still ground (available oil supply) beneath the road (oil extraction curve) underneath the sign (peak oil), but if the coyote (human society) keeps on running uphill (demanding more oil), he’ll soon find no more ground left to support his run (demand exceeds supply and collapse occurs).

It’s the increase in oil demand coupled with the reality of a peak extraction point that poses the problem for human society. Demand is anticipated to continue as the human population increases and oil consumption activities continue. The United States is a big oil consumer, but the economic growth in Brazil, Russia, India, and China is increasing global demand.

In a 2000 report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) considered 12 peak oil scenarios based on three U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates of how much total oil will ultimately be extracted, or recovered. USGS provided a low, mean, and high estimate of total global recoverable oil (2.248 trillion barrels, 3.003 trillion barrels, or 3.896 trillion barrels).

(Some context may be useful here. EIA says the United States consumed over 14 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2009-that’s over five billion for the year. One barrel equals 42 gallons. Three trillion barrels-the 2000 USGS mean estimate for all oil that ever was or will be recovered-equals 126 trillion gallons. That’s roughly 10 percent the volume of Lake Michigan.)

Considering just the three growth scenarios based on the USGS mean estimate of 3.003 trillion barrels of oil, EIA projects peak oil to occur between 2030 and 2050. Those estimates vary depending on how much oil extraction rates increase.

The actual point of peak oil depends on the rate of increasing demand, rate of new extraction, and also any discovery of new supply, according to Edward Beimborn, professor emeritus at the Center for Transportation Studies at the University of Wisconsin Milwaukee’s Department of Civil Engineering. Paradoxically, according to Beimborn, discovering new supply will delay peak oil, but the ensuing collapse will be worse.

After the peak, if demand for oil does not decrease to accommodate supply, “you’re borrowing resources from the future to sustain yourself for another year,” Beimborn said.

Oil will still be available after the peak, Beimborn said, but it won’t come cheap. He said easy sources of oil are being exhausted, and it takes more energy to extract oil from hard-to-get-to locations, reducing the net-energy value of such oil.

“It’s hard to be an optimist,” Beimborn said. To provide enough time for technological alternatives to oil to make an impact, demand for oil would have to be reduced, he said.

“Transportation is a particular problem because of its utter dependence on petroleum,” Beimborn said.

A PDF of Beimborn’s 2009 report, “Transportation Sustainability Issues” is available: http://www4.uwm.edu/cuts/ite09.pdf.

A PDF of Beimborn’s earlier report, “Transportation Energy: Supply, Demand and the Future,” is available: http://www4.uwm.edu/cuts/2050/energy05.pdf.

Transition Links

• transitionmilwaukee.ning.com
• thevictorygardeninitiative.com
• mketimeexchange.org
• transitionus.org
• totnes.transitionnetwork.org